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印度的增长故事结束了吗?还有戏!历史表明,过去也有过起起落落

作者:施索恩工作室 时间:2019-12-23 12:35 
孤叶工作室

Is India's growth story over? Not quite. History shows there have been ups and downs in the past too

印度的增长故事结束了吗?还有戏!历史表明,过去也有过起起落落。

The Reserve Bank of India has downgraded its forecast for growth in the current fiscal year to 5%. But going by the gloom that pervades our analysts and commentators, one would be tempted to think that the forecast is missing a minus sign in front of it. At such a time, a look at the post-reform economic history of India provides a good reality check.

印度储备银行将本财年的经济增长预期下调至5%。但分析人士和评论人士普遍悲观,人们可能会认为,该预测数值前少写了一个负号。在这样的时刻,回顾印度改革后的经济史,可以很好地认清现实。

Since 1991, when systematic economic reforms were launched, the economy has oscillated between periods of high and low growth with the latter lasting two to three years. Each time it enters a low-growth phase, sceptics and pessimists of different shades come to the fore, predicting the end of the India growth story. Each time, the economy proves them wrong.

自1991年开始进行有系统的经济改革以来,印度经济在高增长率和低增长率之间摇摆不定,低增长率持续两至三年。每当印度进入低增长阶段,各种怀疑论者和悲观主义者就会站出来,预言印度增长故事的终结。每一次,经济走势都证明他们错了。

Thus, alongside reforms, India had managed to register an average annual growth rate of 6.4% from 1992-93 to 1999-2000. This was the first time the country grew at a rate exceeding 6% for a continuous eight-year period. Even the 1997-98 East Asian currency crisis could halt the economy during this period for only a year. It quickly bounced back to grow 7.5% on average in the following two years.

因此,在改革的同时,印度在1992-93年至1999-2000年间的年平均增长率为6.4%。这是中国第一次连续八年经济增长率超过6%。即便是1997年至1998年的东亚货币危机,也可能在这段时间内使经济停滞一年。此后两年,中国经济迅速反弹,平均增长率达到7.5%。

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Though there was no discontinuity in policy in the new millennium, average annual growth plummeted to 4.1% during 2000-01 to 2002-03. An avalanche of gloomy pronouncements followed not just in the media but academia as well. While economist Bradford DeLong wrote sceptically of India’s reforms, Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian upped the ante by arguing that the post-1991 reforms had delivered nothing. The economy had grown no faster in the 1990s than in the 1980s, they claimed.

虽然新千年的政策没有中断,但2000-01年至2002-03年间的平均年增长率暴跌至4.1%。随后,不仅是媒体,学术界也纷纷发表了悲观的声明。经济学家布拉德福德•德隆对印度的改革持怀疑态度,而达尼•罗德里克和阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚则更进一步,辩称1991年后的改革毫无成效。他们声称,20世纪90年代的经济增长速度比不上80年代。

But the celebrations of reform critics did not last long. Sustained policy reform by Prime Ministers Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee yielded handsome returns. During the last year of Vajpayee go nment, the economy grew 7.9%. In the following years it accelerated, growing at the average annual rate of 8.2% for a continuous nine-year period from 2003-04 to 2011-12. Even the massive global financial crisis could jolt the economy only for a year with growth returning to 8.5% on average during 2009-10 to 2011-12.

但是对改革的批评并没有持续多久。总理纳拉辛哈·拉奥和阿塔尔·比哈里·瓦杰帕伊的持续政策改革产生了可观的回报。瓦杰帕伊政府执政的最后一年,经济增长了7.9%。在接下来的几年里更是加速增长,从2003-04年到2011-12年连续9年实现了年均8.2%的速度增长。即使是大规模的全球金融危机也在2009-10年至2011-12年期间让经济增速回落至8.5%的情况。

Unfortunately, multiple policy mistakes by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) during its second term culminated in a slowdown once again. The average growth rate fell a tad below the 6% mark during the second half of the term. At its worst during this downturn, growth rate dipped to a low 4.3% in January-March 2013 quarter.

不幸的是,联合进步联盟在其第二个任期内的多次政策失误再次导致经济放缓。下半年的平均增长率略低于6%。在这次经济衰退最糟糕的时候,2013年第一季度的增长率降至4.3%。

The fall once again saw pessimists surface. In a 2012 report, Standard & Poor’s rhetorically asked, ‘Will India Be the First BRIC Fallen Angel?’ Echoing the sentiment, in its August 23, 2013 story titled ‘India in Trouble: The Reckoning’, the Economist declared, “It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind since 1991.”

这次下跌再次让悲观主义者浮出水面。标准普尔在2012年的一份报告中问道,印度会成为金砖四国中第一个倒下的天使吗?《经济学人》在2013年8月23日发表的题为《印度陷入困境:清算》的文章呼应了这一观点。文章称,“人们普遍认为,印度正处于1991年以来最严重的经济困境。”

But the Indian economy disappointed pessimists yet again. With some key UPA mistakes corrected and investor confidence restored, the economy returned to the healthy pace of 7.5% on average during 2014-15 to 2018-19. Many had predicted that demonetisation of high-denomination currency notes, announced on November 8, 2016, would bring the economy down on its feet. But it continued its advance, growing robustly at 8.2% in 2016-17.

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